Ukraine’s progress tarnishes Putin’s ‘Mr Security’ image

Kursk.

It was one of many first phrases I ever wrote and uttered as a BBC journalist.

In 2000, I reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine within the icy waters of the Barents Sea. 100 and eighteen submariners have been killed.

Vladimir Putin has been president for lower than half a yr. I nonetheless bear in mind Russian TV channels slamming him for the best way he dealt with the catastrophe.

This week marks the twenty fourth anniversary of the sinking of Ok-141 Kursk. Furthermore, the phrase Kursk seems once more in my emails from Russia. This time, it has been 9 days since Ukrainian forces launched a shock assault on the Kursk area and seized territory there.

Similar sentence.

However Russia 2024 may be very totally different from Russia 2000.

This time, there was no signal of criticism of President Putin on Russian tv; no questioning of his decision-making; no suggestion that it was his invasion of Ukraine that led to this dramatic second. Then once more, the Kremlin has spent 1 / 4 of a century exercising tight management over Russian media and messaging.

Even so, will these occasions injury Vladimir Putin?

I have been requested this query many occasions over the previous two and a half years:

• In 2022, Ukraine sank the Moscow warship, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
• Months later, it occurred once more after Russian troops withdrew from northeastern Ukraine in a flash
• Armed mercenaries marched on Moscow throughout the 2023 Wagner Revolt, a direct problem to Vladimir Putin’s authority.

President Putin has been by way of all of it, apparently unscathed. He’s assured he can overcome this newest problem.

However here is the factor. Wagner’s mutiny was over in someday.

Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia has been happening for greater than every week. The longer this goes on, the higher the stress on Russia’s management and the higher the potential injury to President Putin’s authority.

Throughout his two and a half years in energy, Putin has established a picture as “Mr. Safety.”“The one particular person on this huge nation able to guaranteeing the protection of Russians.

The so-called “particular navy operation” (a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) he proposed to the Russian individuals was a method to improve Russia’s nationwide safety.

Two and a half years into this battle, there aren’t many indicators of “security and safety” right here.

There are extra NATO presences on Russia’s borders, and Sweden and Finland have joined the NATO alliance; Russian cities are recurrently attacked by Ukrainian drones; and now Ukrainian troopers are occupying Russian territory.

Vladimir Putin is making an attempt to point out the Russian public by way of his selection of language that there isn’t a have to panic.

When referring to the invasion of Ukraine, he averted utilizing the phrase “invasion.” As an alternative, he spoke of “the state of affairs within the border areas” or “ongoing occasions.” Kremlin leaders additionally known as Ukraine’s offensive a “provocation.”

What is going to the Russian president do subsequent?

Do not count on him to choose up the telephone and name Kyiv. Russian officers have made clear they’re shelving the thought of ​​peace talks within the wake of the assaults in Ukraine.

Not that any large-scale negotiations are deliberate.

In actual fact, this week chief Vladimir Putin introduced his intentions exactly: “…to drive the enemy to go away Russian territory.”

Saying it’s one factor. Doing it’s one other story. Regardless of deploying reinforcements to the Kursk area, Russian forces have but to regain management of the realm.

As I walked previous the Kremlin on Thursday morning, I ended in my tracks.

Edith Piaf’s traditional as employees arrange seating and screens for an occasion No, I do not remorse something (No, I Don’t Remorse) is enjoying on the large display screen and echoing round Crimson Sq..

It was a really surreal second.

Vladimir Putin has proven no signal of remorse for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

He has no regrets concerning the selections he has made since.

If his public statements mirror his present mind-set, he nonetheless sees just one attainable consequence to the battle: Russian victory.