Is Bitcoin Price in Serious Danger? 3 bearish signals and 2 bullish signals for BTC to watch

Bitcoin costs continued to fluctuate within the week ending August 17, regardless of low client inflation signaling an impending glut of U.S. {dollars} and an increase within the S&P 500.

The most recent U.S. client inflation knowledge offers extra proof for the Federal Reserve to chop rates of interest sharply in September. That is excellent news for Bitcoin, as extra {dollars} relative to the identical provide of Bitcoin is a think about rising costs.

In the meantime, shares are rising once more and are rapidly approaching July’s all-time highs. This may very well be an indication that traders are regaining their footing after the flash crash in early August. However that’s not the case for Bitcoin and different cryptocurrencies, which stay in correction territory this week.

Solana, XRP and Polkadot costs fell by double digits this week. Different main cryptocurrencies reminiscent of Ethereum, BNB, Dogecoin and Cardano are down between 2% and eight% this week.

So, is one other crypto winter already upon us, or are the cryptocurrency alternate markets merely consolidating forward of one other large bull run to all-time highs?

Listed here are some Bitcoin worth indicators that may assist cryptocurrency merchants reply this query.

3 Bearish Bitcoin Worth Indicators

Bitcoin worth fails to interrupt $70,000

The Bitcoin blockchain’s hash price and community exercise proceed to point out robust momentum, however the orange cryptocurrency is just not seeing the identical features on exchanges because it was after the halving in earlier cycles.

Bitcoin’s worth has struggled all yr to interrupt above the important thing resistance stage of $70,000, though it briefly topped $73,000 in March, setting a report.

Not too long ago, the alternate price fell to The cryptocurrency market is shedding $80 billion day by day, falling under $60,000.

Change: USDT withdraws US$1 billion

In the meantime, retail traders have withdrawn giant quantities of stablecoins from cryptocurrency exchanges, one other bearish signal for the value of Bitcoin and different cryptocurrencies.

Yesterday, greater than $1 billion in USDT was withdrawn from exchanges, marking the biggest Tether outflow since Could.

Whereas deposits are sometimes seen as bullish—indicating that the consumer is making ready to buy an asset—withdrawals can have a extra nuanced rationalization.

For instance, a consumer may… pic.twitter.com/7LQSeNi9kE

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) August 14, 2024

Blockchain insights agency Into The Block reported on Wednesday that customers withdrew greater than $1 billion in USDT from the alternate. That is the biggest Tether stablecoin outflow from a cryptocurrency alternate since Could.

The previous two occasions this has occurred had been earlier than Bitcoin worth corrections. Nonetheless, in keeping with Into The Block, this isn’t essentially a bearish sign. The blockchain firm famous that traders “might transfer funds to take part in DeFi and search yield exterior of centralized exchanges.”

Bitcoin worth rejects low CPI print

CPI knowledge this week show The bottom 12-month development price in client inflation since 2021 may very well be a driver for Bitcoin costs. Nonetheless, in comparison with different components, there merely isn’t sufficient help to forestall Bitcoin from falling. This seems very pessimistic for the cryptocurrency market.

Based mostly on provide and demand economics and the character of central financial institution coverage, low CPI ought to appeal to Bitcoin bulls. This group follows and understands central financial institution coverage in addition to Wall Road and the bond market. With inflation cooling quickly and unemployment jump to Rates of interest had been at 4.3% in July, and the Fed appears prone to lower rates of interest in September.

Economists and traders now anticipate the Fed to chop rates of interest considerably for the primary time because it started elevating charges in March 2022. explain:

“The highest query now’s whether or not the Fed will lower rates of interest by 25 or 50 foundation factors subsequent month. If a lot of the knowledge over the following 5 weeks level to a slowdown within the economic system, the Fed might lower rates of interest extra deeply.

Had Bitcoin not skilled such a bearish correction, such information might have despatched shockwaves via cryptocurrency exchanges. However proper now the bears are pricing in.

2 Bullish Bitcoin Worth Indicators

It is not all unhealthy information this week. Bitcoin’s worth as we speak could also be primarily based on the next two indicators of worth:

Bitcoin hits new lows on exchanges

Buyers are shifting Bitcoin off exchanges.

This can be a bullish stancePreviously market, it has proven robust perception and intention to carry Bitcoin, whether or not it’s hail or excessive water. CoinGlass knowledge exhibits that Bitcoin buying and selling quantity on exchanges has just lately fallen to historic lows.

Within the seven days main as much as Thursday, August 15, BTC balances on cryptocurrency exchanges fell by -1,406 BTC on Bitstamp, -1,008 BTC on Coinbase Professional, and -501 BTC on Binance. Bitcoin outflows throughout all cryptocurrency exchanges tracked by CoinGlass totaled -2,847.

Bitcoin technical facets

Bitcoin technical indicators are additionally constructive for the cryptocurrency within the second half of 2024. This follows a historic rise in Bitcoin costs to report ranges in March.

The mannequin comes from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at RealVision Finance.

“My built-in international liquidity momentum mannequin (MSI) offers the primary bullish regime sign since November 2023,” Coutts wrote in a publish on X on Thursday. “Recall that through the regime flip Earlier than the bearish transfer, Bitcoin gained 75% from November to April.

Central banks are capitulating, liquidity faucets are opening, #bitcoin About to go larger.

My built-in international liquidity momentum mannequin (MSI) offers the primary bullish sign since November 2023. pic.twitter.com/ovF6qSHX8c

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) August 15, 2024

Solely time and the market will inform, however the trendline surrounding Bitcoin’s multi-month range-side channel is meandering right into a (often bullish) descending wedge sample. Is that this a mirage or the beginning of one thing large for Bitcoin costs?