Lichtman’s method, developed along with his geophysicist good friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok, contains incumbents, medium-term good points, third-party candidates, short-term economics , long-term economic system, social unrest, White Home scandals, incumbent and challenger charisma, and overseas international locations. For a 2024 presidential bid, Lichtman thinks Harris has eight keys that work in her favor that he thinks are sufficient to make sure she wins.
“Kamala Harris performs nicely on eight out of 13 indicators and due to this fact has the keys to the White Home,” Leachman stated.
The historian is thought for his correct predictions Donald TrumpIn 2016, the US unexpectedly received regardless of practically all polls predicting in any other case. Nonetheless, some critics consider Lichtman truly predicted Trump would win the favored vote; Hillary Clinton Obtained practically 3 million extra votes than Trump. Lichtman’s solely unsuitable prediction got here in 2000, when he predicted Al Gore would defeat George Bush; Gore nonetheless received the favored vote and the Electoral Faculty outcomes Decided by the U.S. Supreme Court docket.
For the 2024 election, Leachman famous that eight of his key phrases help Kamala Harris, whereas three of his key phrases help Donald Trump. Key components in Trump’s favor embrace the social gathering that controls the White Home gaining seats within the 2022 midterm elections, the present president or vp working for re-election, and what he sees as Harris’ lack of charisma.
Lichtman elaborated on this, noting that two remaining keys — the context of overseas coverage failure or success — may nonetheless swing in Trump’s path earlier than the election. Nonetheless, he believes eight keys in Harris’ favor could be sufficient for her to win the presidency. . Notably, early voting begins every week after the September 10 presidential debate. The Trump marketing campaign on Tuesday cited help from the estranged brother and different members of the family of Harris working mate Tim Walz. On Wednesday, Harris’ marketing campaign obtained endorsements from former Republican lawmakers Liz Cheney. Cheney, a staunch conservative and the daughter of former US Vice President Dick Cheney, has beforehand opposed Trump. She introduced her choice to vote for Harris, citing the hazard Trump posed to the US.
Liz Cheney stated: “I’ll vote for Harris as a result of Trump is a hazard to America.”