On Tuesday, the Securities and Alternate Board of India (Sebi) in a session paper proposed elevating the price of buying and selling inventory index futures and choices for particular person merchants and scrapping some weekly merchandise to curb a increase in India’s fairness derivatives market.
“We’re seeing exchange- and retail-centric broker most affected by the proposed adjustments,” mentioned Jeffries in buyer notes. The brokerage mentioned Sebi’s transfer might have an effect on Zerodha, angel one Paytm Cash will probably be “very excessive”.
“If gross sales of discontinued merchandise spill over, BSE might offset the impression and even achieve,” it mentioned. BSE shares rose 6% to Rs 2,559 on Wednesday. Unlisted shares on the NSE have fallen 10-12 per cent to Rs 5,400 within the unofficial market prior to now month resulting from tighter rules on derivatives, brokers mentioned. Amongst brokers, AngelOne rose 1.2% on Wednesday. The inventory has fallen 16% prior to now month.
Robust occasions for brokers
In accordance with NSE and BSE estimates, these measures may have a adverse impression of 33% and 24% on NSE and BSE earnings in fiscal 2026 respectively. IIFL SecuritiesBK Sabharwal, chairman of the capital markets and commodity markets committee of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Business, mentioned: “If all seven proposals are carried out as advisable, this may increasingly severely weaken the buying and selling quantity of derivatives.” Sabharwal recommended Sebi to implement these proposals in a phased method.
“In 2014, South Korea carried out related measures amid related issues. Nonetheless, regardless of repeated makes an attempt by regulators to renew enterprise exercise, the market there by no means recovered and even 10 years later, buying and selling volumes are nonetheless decrease than in 2014.
Some brokers consider Sebi will take extra steps. “We’re prone to see extra measures together with product suitability, buyer certification, and many others. All these measures are anticipated to rationalize fairness derivatives buying and selling volumes,” mentioned Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO, HDFC Securities.
Brokers mentioned current strikes by the regulator, together with revising primary providers account (BSDA) expenses from September 1 and unifying change buying and selling charges from October 1 with none reductions based mostly on buying and selling quantity, might It’ll have an effect on the dealer’s revenue by 20-50%. Sebi additionally desires to introduce ASBA (Utility Supported by Blocked Quantities) for secondary market buying and selling, which can drain the “floating revenue” of brokers.
“Given their dependence on retail traders, low cost brokers are prone to be affected greater than conventional full-service brokers,” mentioned Devesh Agarwal, analyst at IIFL Securities.
“We consider NSE will probably be impacted extra as choices account for about 60% of its income in comparison with about 40% for BSE. We estimate NSE’s projected FY26 earnings to be impacted by 25-30%, BSE’s impression It’ll attain 15-18%.